By Comr. Amos Oge Kalu

Tanko Ugochukwu, a self‑styled political analyst, has outlined several “Matters Arising” concerning Peter Obi’s political future. Tanko Ugochukwu writes that former President Olusegun Obasanjo is urging Obi to contest the 2027 presidential race under the PDP. Accepting this would likely mark Obi’s final political stop, as the PDP is seen as a dying structure. He notes that PDP has been effectively dismantled by Nyesom Wike, who has “buried” the party and is now enjoying its remnants. Obi should not be lured back into this exhausted political marriage.

Obi is not a bona fide member of any party; even Labour Party would struggle to accommodate him in a primary election, indicating his lack of solid party footing. Earlier advice to leverage the Obedient movement into a fresh political party was ignored. Tinubu subsequently hijacked Labour Party, turning it into an APC‑aligned entity, leaving Obi without a viable platform.

President Tinubu, through his appointed INEC leadership, has blocked registration of new parties and eliminated independent candidacies for 2027, effectively caging Obi politically. Atiku Abubakar remains the sole credible opponent to Tinubu. Obi should seek an accord with Atiku, supporting his candidacy even if Atiku serves only one term, to retain political relevance. Obi’s indecisiveness has been warned about; he now resembles a “bird without a song” politically. The only open doorway appears to be Atiku’s ADC alliance, while Obasanjo’s promises offer no immediate rescue.

Nuanced response by Chief Kenneth Chukwu, a Diaspora astute politician and public analyst

Dear Tanko Ugochukwu. That’s a good writeup; to some extent you are right. But like I always say, one percent chance, if utilized well, can surprise doubting Thomas. PO has maintained his desire to see Nigeria work higher than his desire to be Nigeria’s president — that is called principle and honor. Deputizing Atiku might seem the sure and easy path to the presidency, but there’s more than meets the eye here. It would amount to gross compromise of principle. Isolating the Obidients movement massively votes for Tinubu — this is no brainier if it’s about becoming president.

One would advise PO to join ranks with Atiku, but it’s more than that:

1. To correct the broken system of nation for over six decades and move away from the “survival of the fittest” romance, where who plays dirtiest is crowned, where corruption and bigotry are keys to the top, and where the interest of the masses are an afterthought — this is not what PO stands for.
2. Principle and integrity — should PO shy away from the VP ticket, contest and lose in the 2027 general election, he will depart the political arena with his shoulder high and integrity intact.
3. Practice what you preach — if he takes the VP ticket and later becomes president, he will enter the history books as an opportunist who is no different from the rest of the pack, saying one thing and doing another.

Now to Tinubu’s master plan: In strategic management class we’re taught that sometimes the best/most thought-out strategic plan fails while the overlooked excel — unforeseen circumstances and new innovation can make the difference. Tinubu believes he has it all figured out but fails to see the little details that will make the whole lot of differences. Should PO pick the PDP ticket, this is what will happen — Tinubu panic and gone. Simple question: Why is Wike fighting everything not to see PO or Jonathan pick PDP ticket? Now you know.

Worst-case scenario: All the defected governors in the South retain their offices, but there is no way Tinubu will win PO in a popular contest in the South-South and Southeast. Take this to any bank any day, anytime. Tinubu might have greased politicians’ hands but not the masses who struggle everyday to survive and would lose to see his back. His selected anti-corruption crusade is invisible. Nigerians are not stupid. His neglect of Southeast and South in major projects and focus mainly on some parts of Southwest has not gained him good name even in some quarters in the Southwest.

The North: Peter Obi just needs to pick a good candidate to give him Kano and some northern votes and the election will be over before noon. Don’t forget that Tinubu has marginalized the North since becoming president — there is no hope for him in the North.

Now PO’s chances of winning:

• PO will win Southeast with 98% or more.
• 75–80% of South-South will vote PO.
• Forget about the governors cross-carpeting — 30–40% of Southwest will go PO.

Tell me where Tinubu’s winning formula will come from — rigging and judiciary compromise? No, it will not work this time around. You know why — a new “sheriff” is in town. Trump — Joe Biden is gone and Trump has a score to settle with Tinubu. There is no better time than now. If there’s a set of people Trump hates, it’s drug dealers. Don’t forget Tinubu’s open support of Trump’s second term (which he lost to Joe Biden) and the same support to the USA last general election.

Another factor we should not neglect is USA disdain for genocide in Nigeria, which they blame APC & Tinubu government for. Trust me, Tinubu is on life support — he is much more concerned with avoiding prison after 2027 for his government’s involvement and neglect of genocide in Nigeria. Another of his worry: confiscation of his assets, which he hopes France will protect — of course, France will disappoint him at the needed time.

PDP still has structure and PO popularity has not disappeared. Obidients’ desire for better Nigeria has not changed; rather, Tinubu has made it more zealous.