June 20, 2026, is the date appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to hold the governorship election in Ekiti State. Ceteris paribus, this leaves exactly 91 days for the incumbent governor, Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, aka BAO, to defend a mandate that the conventional wisdom already views as a logical bridge to four more years of consolidated progress.

The consensus is that the odds heavily favour the incumbent, and for good reason. As it stands, there is no potent opposition, and there are unlikely to be legal obstacles regarding the legitimacy of his candidacy. However, while it is difficult to imagine a political earthquake that could rob the incumbent governor of victory, Oyebanji should look to the cautionary precedent of John Major.

Those who have deconstructed that 1997 landslide often point to a singular, biting irony: Major was a decent and capable leader, but he and his media team failed to project him as such. The long and short of it is that perception overrode performance. The rest is history! To borrow the Boy Scout motto, BAO must “Be Prepared.”

As the campaign gathers steam, a crucial point in contemporary political history is that politics, as Niccolò Machiavelli cautioned centuries ago, is “about constant reminders.” Machiavelli was right! Much of the electorate possesses short attention spans and have to be constantly reminded of the incumbent’s achievements, lest they take stability for granted and succumb to the amorous advances of a new suitor wooing them with mouthwatering, often-unrealistic promises. Oyebanji must remember that the medium is the message. He should refine his delivery and partition the electorate into distinct, relatable blocks, deploying tailored messaging for market women, subsistence farmers, students and the organized labour unions alike.

Modern politics, as all key electoral studies have shown, is based on amalgamating various interest groups into a winning majority. By all objective indices, BAO has done enough to assuage the self-interest of a diverse base of these focus groups, which he can now consolidate into a convincing electoral majority through a higher-than-anticipated voter turnout. This should not be seen as a promotion of a particular candidate; rather, it is a realistic assessment of what is on the ground, based on a whole host of indices. Fundamentally, as democrats, there must be a tinge of regret that a tepid opposition has robbed this race of its potential as a keenly contested election. The opposition really needs to get its act together!

For the senatorial districts, the 2022 numbers tell the real story: Oyebanji didn’t just win; he cleared over 51% in all three districts, leaving the opposition gasping for breath. With a massive 30-point lead and a fractured field, the All Progressives Congress (APC)’s dominance is geographically total. This is the “convincing calculus” any challenger must face. Even the opposition has clearly not embarked on a strategy of stoking disaffection to whip up sentiments injurious to the government in any of the senatorial districts, federal or state constituencies, or local government areas.

This is not for a lack of electoral astuteness, but because the governor’s disposition has prevented the very missteps that might offend any particular demographic in the state. This is indeed a significant bonus to the sensible manner in which BAO has conducted the business of running the state. It stands in sharp contradistinction to the situation on the ground in many states where there has been a persistent hue and cry about marginalization.

A case in point is Osun State, where disaffection remains over what is jocularly described as ‘Edenisation’ – the perception that the incumbent governor, also facing reelection this year, has been too parochial and unfair to the rest of the state. Beyond the concerns highlighted on this page last week, the numbers speak for themselves: nine out of 16 Permanent Secretaries are reportedly from Ede. The same goes for the Directors-General and Special Advisers.

The story doesn’t end there! While O’Ambulance staff from Ede have been quietly moved into permanent roles, everyone else has been left behind. This wave of secret, backdated hiring for Ede indigenes is spreading through the ministries and schools. Without being immodest, Ademola Adeleke’s is becoming “a government of Ede, by the Edes, and for the Edes.” Oyebanji must capitalize on this contrast!

In his second term, BAO should establish a more formal partnership with the Ekiti Diaspora. He must leverage this network into an essential economic trajectory for the state, much like the successful models seen in various Indian states. A state leader mobilizing indigenes in the Diaspora has often translated into massive foreign investment. In the forthcoming election, the governor should target the ‘Ekiti-in-the-Diaspora’ as a vital focus group, explaining in clear detail how they will be mobilized for a mutually beneficial relationship during his second term.

Members of the Diaspora are influential figures within their families and communities. Properly mobilized, they can make a significant difference in the election, even though Nigeria has yet to adopt diaspora voting as seen in countries like Kenya. Oyebanji should organize a televised chat with the Diaspora, broadcast on radio, television and various social media platforms. Such an interaction would likely achieve a massive audience both within the state and abroad. He must also focus on Diaspora WhatsApp groups to ensure his message is delivered directly.

Figures don’t lie! For seven straight quarters, Ekiti has topped the BudgIT transparency rankings. That’s not just a trophy for the shelf; it’s the reason foreign investors are finally looking the Ekiti way. While others are making excuses, 5,000 of its youths are back on the farm, clearing 6,000 hectares for free and raking in over ₦1.1 billion in profit. Between the new Cargo Airport and the 288km of roads now lit up at night, it’s clear: Ekiti is no longer just a “civil service state”, it is open for real business.

Talk of the Aramoko-Igede-Iyin-Ado Road! It is a masterstroke in federal-state synergy. By capitalizing on his relationship with the presidency, Oyebanji has secured its full reconstruction using durable concrete technology, effectively ending the era of ‘patch-patch’ palliatives. With the formal contract papers finalized a mere fortnight ago, the machines are ready to roll.

But the part that actually hits home is how the current administration treats the vulnerable, clears WAEC fees for nearly 70,000 students and drops neonatal deaths by 57%. More impressively, Ekiti is now the first state in Nigeria to stop just “pitying” children with disabilities and actually building them therapy rooms and adapted classrooms. From the Amotekun Boys keeping its farmers safe to the free healthcare for pregnant women, BAO record bears witness to the fact that one can build solid infrastructure and still have a heart for the common man. This is what is called the “BAO Effect.” It is governance that actually reaches the person on the street.

Again, for the governor, June 20, 2026, should be more than a recurring appointment with destiny; it represents a renewal of hope, a critical opportunity to solidify his place in history. In a field of loud promises, his “word-is-bond” reputation remains his most potent campaign asset. As a leader of proven conscience and moral rectitude, BAO must now project the persona of a calm, understated achiever who has delivered on his mandate. As Adebayo J. Olusegun (popularly known as HC Ade) succinctly puts it: “Development cannot exist without peace and security.” Indeed, this stability has become the hallmark of Oyebanji’s tenure, “the primary reason Ekiti stands united in its support for his re-election.”

May the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world, grant us peace in Nigeria!

Email: ijebujesa@yahoo.co.uk.

Mobile: 08033614419 SMS only.